Locked Out No More: Ethiopia's Bold Move in the Red Sea Power Play
Across history, the Red Sea has garnered differing degrees of attention because of various players' strategic concerns and changes in the area’s geopolitical environment. Particularly since the start of the new millennium—and after the events of the Arab Spring—there has been an increased concentration on this crucial maritime route both within the region and internationally. This surge in interest mainly arises from expanded ports and the rising number of foreign military installations. Consequently, the shores along the Red Sea have become one of the globe's prominent “military outposts.”
As a landlocked country, Ethiopia holds substantial security stakes in the Red Sea due to its importance as a vital trade passage, enabling the import and export of goods for the nation. In response, Ethiopia has intensified its diplomatic relations with entities like the African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). This heightened focus aims at keeping close tabs on matters concerning maritime management within the area. Such actions underscore Ethiopia’s profound worries about regional happenings.
The geopolitical dynamics around the Red Sea have historically served as a stage for significant contestation, with Ethiopia becoming a focal point since World War II. Owing to its close geographical position and active role in regional affairs, Ethiopia has encountered various political, economic, and security consequences due to activities in the vicinity of the sea. Given the interplay between the Red Sea’s strategic importance and Ethiopia’s own national interests, the nation remains particularly attuned to occurrences within and adjacent to this marine passage. Various states and non-state entities have already deployed military installations nearby, while additional players aim to enhance their influence across its shores. Consequently, a pivotal inquiry emerges: How do these factors impact Ethiopia's safety?
Coastal nations bordering the Red Sea—like Sudan, Djibouti, Somalia, and Kenya—are vital for Ethiopia’s efforts to gain maritime access. Herein, Saudi Arabia and Egypt have spearheaded the creation of the Red Sea Forum aimed at facilitating regional talks, with a focus mainly on supporting these coastal countries. Nonetheless, both Ethiopia and several significant parties remain outside this endeavor.
The link between the Red Sea’s geopolitical importance and Ethiopia’s strategic goals renders the nation particularly attuned to developments within and adjacent to this marine passage.
"Any effort to govern the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden that does not include us will not be fair or realistic; the Red Sea is a natural and strategic outlet for us," a high-ranking Ethiopian diplomat stated in response to the Saudi-Egyptian proposal. Indeed, Ethiopia's exclusion from a Red Sea forum could impede the development of ports, infrastructure, and energy resources across the Horn, as well as its expanding engagement with the Gulf States.
Battle for Red Sea Influence: Ethiopia's Way Ahead
The competition for supremacy over the Red Sea has transformed across different eras because of changes in global political dynamics and the ambitions of multiple stakeholders. Throughout history, this crucial sea lane was governed by numerous influential empires such as the Axumite Kingdom, the Arab region, and the Ottoman Empire, followed by European powers and Egyptians. As per historical records, gaining command over this vital water route has always signified controlling not only the marine pathway leading up towards Egypt and Europe but also linking via Bab el-Mandeb to Southeast Asia and India.
Over the past few years, a multi-polar dynamic has developed within the Red Sea area. Various both local and worldwide actors have amplified their involvement due to multiple strategic motivations. Currently, this vital sea lane possesses significant economic and security implications, sparking competitions between countries aiming to secure their stakes and extend their sway. This zone is flanked by several states characterized by distinct political frameworks, societal configurations, and individual objectives, which complicates collaborative management efforts. Consequently, nations frequently form coalitions—ranging from nearby neighbors to distant allies—to defend their respective concerns.
In contrast to the larger geopolitical contest involving major players such as the United States, China, and Russia, the rivalry among regional entities, notably the Gulf states, poses more direct challenges to the stability of the Red Sea. Adopting neutral or non-aligned strategies is crucial for handling these conflicts. Such an approach supports Ethiopia’s security goals by facilitating a wider array of alliances without compromising regional steadiness. Non-alignment provides Ethiopia with consistency, which aids in maneuvering through the complex dynamics at play within the Red Sea area.
In order to safeguard Ethiopia’s national security—encompassing both domestic and international aspects—and to counteract possible dangers stemming from foreign military installations and regional rivalry, it is essential to enhance public understanding of events taking place in the Red Sea and further abroad. It would be beneficial for the nation to create an early alert mechanism and implement a forward-thinking strategy aimed at tackling prospective security challenges brought about by changing geopolitics in the area. Active participation from the general populace along with specialists plays a key role here because contemporary conflict scenarios are progressively moving away from conventional battles towards more technology-oriented confrontations and indirect engagements known as proxy wars. Consequently, strategic approaches in this domain ought to adapt suitably.
Ethiopia needs to focus on maintaining internal stability since division within the country might provide opportunities for insurgent groups and proxies, similar to what has happened in nearby nations. It’s crucial that Ethiopia grasps the regional and global political landscape to shape effective national policies. These efforts should be supported by engaging in economic diplomacy and building collaborative security partnerships with adjacent countries.
Moreover, Ethiopia’s involvement in scheduled port development initiatives must be coupled with reinforcing its diplomatic staff, boosting naval strength, and improving intelligence operations. Such steps will be crucial for safeguarding Ethiopia’s enduring stakes in the Red Sea region as well as its wider geopolitical landscape. AS
Yohanan Yokamo serves as both a lecturer and researcher at the College of Law and Governance located within Hawassa University.
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